Determine the expected time and variance for each activity

05 Oct

Decision Analysis & Modeling

1. Even though there are many auto rickshaw manufactures, two companies Bajaj and M&M, control the market in Maharashtra. If both the companies make similar design changes in their auto rickshaws in a year, their market shares will remain unchanged. Similarly if neither of them goes for any changes, then also their market shares will remain constant. But if incase one company goes for a design change and other doesn’t then the market shares are going to change, the payoff matrix for increase or decrease in market share under different possible scenarios is given below:

M&M No changes Small changes Major Changes
No changes 0 -4 -10
Small changes 3 0 5
Major Changes 8 1 0


Find the value of the game. What changes should M&M consider if this information is only available to it?

2. Using suitable examples discuss the difference between simple linear regression and logistic regression.

3. To assemble a “Drone”, Mukesh has laid out the seven major activities involved. The activities are labeled as A through G in the following table, which also shows their various completion times (in Hrs) and immediate predecessor of each activity.

Activity Most optimistic


Most likely time Most pessimistic time immediate


A 1 2 3
B 2 3 4
C 4 5 6 A
D 8 9 10 B
E 2 5 8 C,D
F 4 5 6 D
G 1 2 3 E

a. Determine the expected time and variance for each activity.

b. Determine the critical path for the project. What is the probability of completing the project in less than 25 hours?

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