Decision Analysis & Modeling
1. Even though there are many auto rickshaw manufactures, two companies Bajaj and M&M, control the market in Maharashtra. If both the companies make similar design changes in their auto rickshaws in a year, their market shares will remain unchanged. Similarly if neither of them goes for any changes, then also their market shares will remain constant. But if incase one company goes for a design change and other doesn’t then the market shares are going to change, the payoff matrix for increase or decrease in market share under different possible scenarios is given below:
Bajaj | ||||
M&M | No changes | Small changes | Major Changes | |
No changes | 0 | -4 | -10 | |
Small changes | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
Major Changes | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Find the value of the game. What changes should M&M consider if this information is only available to it?
2. Using suitable examples discuss the difference between simple linear regression and logistic regression.
3. To assemble a “Drone”, Mukesh has laid out the seven major activities involved. The activities are labeled as A through G in the following table, which also shows their various completion times (in Hrs) and immediate predecessor of each activity.
Activity | Most optimistic
time |
Most likely time | Most pessimistic time | immediate
predecessor |
A | 1 | 2 | 3 | – |
B | 2 | 3 | 4 | – |
C | 4 | 5 | 6 | A |
D | 8 | 9 | 10 | B |
E | 2 | 5 | 8 | C,D |
F | 4 | 5 | 6 | D |
G | 1 | 2 | 3 | E |
a. Determine the expected time and variance for each activity.
b. Determine the critical path for the project. What is the probability of completing the project in less than 25 hours?