# Part 1) Draw the Probability tree diagram. (Note: You may use any software for this, like MS paint, MS office, etc.)

Decision Science

1. Three airlines serve a Srinagar. Airline ‘Amira’ has 50% of all the scheduled flights, airline ‘Biyas’ has 30%, and airline ‘chinar’ has the remaining 20%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 65%, and 40%, respectively.

Part 1) Draw the Probability tree diagram. (Note: You may use any software for this, like MS paint, MS office, etc.)

Part 2) A plane has just left on time. What is the probability that it was airline ‘Amira’?

2. Rashmi Dhar, manufacturer, and seller of ‘Kashmiri- kahwa’ through E-commers websites.

She wanted to know the effect of her spending in advertisement of ‘Kahwa’ on the sales, along with the other factors; ‘number of sales representatives’, ‘customer-satisfaction ratings’. For this research she has gathered the sales data in the following table, along with other necessary information.

Part 1) Define dependent and independent variables

Part 2) Write regression model equation only.

Part 3) Run regression analysis in EXCEL (copy all those tables from EXCEL and paste them in your document).

Part 4) Write the Interpretation of Regression statistics-table, ANOVA- table.

Write an interpretation (by referring P-value/ t-stat) on significant effect of independent variables on sales.

 Region/ Districts Sales of Kahwa (in INR) Spending in advertise (in INR) Number of sales Representatives (person) Customer-satisfaction ratings (1=highly dissatisfied to 5 = highly satisfied Kupwara 55328 5512 1 1 Badgam 56251 8337 1 1 Leh-ladakh 57126 8788 4 1 Kargil 58739 8828 5 1 Punch 66984 9050 5 2 Rajouri 70676 10150 7 2 Kathua 73206 11236 8 2 Baramula 80571 12538 8 3 Bandipore 93168 13161 8 3 Srinagar 99432 13448 9 4

3.a. According to one survey in India, 75% of Instagram users love REELS. Suppose that 25 Instagram users (randomly selected) have been approached in the university located in vile parle. They have been asked about their status of like/ dislike the Instagram- REELS.

a) What is the probability that Exactly 15 of them would agree with the claim (or said they love Insta-REELS)?

b) What is the probability that Exactly 20 of them would agree with the claim (or said they love Insta-REELS)?

3.b. ‘Bhartdarshan’ is an Internet-based travel agency wherein customers can see videos of the cities they plan to visit. The number of hits daily is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of 10,000 and a standard deviation of 2,400.

a. What is the probability of getting more than 12,000 hits?

b. What is the probability of getting fewer than 9,000 hits?

1. You are the Team Leader with Amazon. A new group of interns has joined the company. You have been given the responsibility of explaining them how to draft business messages. You explain them about, ‘Adapting the message to Your Audience.’ This can be done by –

• Using the You Attitude;
• Maintaining Standard of Etiquette;
• Emphasizing the Positive and
• Using Bias Free Language.

Explain these giving appropriate examples of each.

2. Lisa, a commerce graduate, has been working in the field of Finance for the last 3 years. She now decides to do her post-graduation in management from a reputed college. As a part of her documents, Lisa requires a recommendation letter from her former professor. Imagining yourself to be Lisa, write a letter to your former professor requesting him to write a recommendation letter for you. Take care to refresh the professor’s memory because you had passed out three years ago. Creatively assume any other details that you need for writing the request letter.

3. Write a complaint letter to the Director of Consumer Grievance Redressal Cell based on the facts given below:

You are Jass Javvy. You bought a Kitchen Aid stand mixer from Flipkart on 1 January 2022 for an amount of Rs.40,000. This included delivery and 40-day money-back offer. As the stand mixer did not perform satisfactorily you decide to return it to Flipkart and send it back on 5th January. You call the company every week and the representative inform you over phone that the transportation and handling charges as well as money equivalent to the price of the mixer, would be credited to your account. On 15th March you receive a statement for your credit card and to your dismay you find that no credit has been applied to your account for the mixer, its transportation and handling charges. You are dissatisfied and decide to write a complaint letter.

a. What is the appropriate ‘tone’ of a letter of claim? How will the tone affect the manner in which the reader responds? Explain.

b. Assume yourself to be Jass Javvy and write a complaint letter to Flipkart.