Calculate the probability for the following statements. Draw the Probability tree diagram also

01 Mar

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Decision Science

 

Q1. Calculate the probability for the following statements. Draw the Probability tree diagram also.

In a medical college of Pune (a class of 100 people), 30 % people Like to have Misal-pav on the farewell party as per the google form survey. Remaining people have chosen vadapav. Out of those who have chosen Misal-pav 50 % said that they would eat only Jain Misal pav. Well, 30 % of those have chosen Vadapav, also said they would have Jain Vadapav only.

  • What is the stack (percent & number) of people Who will have Jain Food (including MISal pav and Vadapav)
  • What is the probability of selecting a person who would eat Misal pav given that person’s diet type is Jain.

Note: Handmade drawing of Diagram is prohibited; prepare it with the help of software like MS-Word.

Q2. Write the interpretation for the following regression model. You are advised to run the analysis using MS EXCEL.

Here Hiranmayee Dhar, an entrepreneur who is running “Pashminaa” a store of Pashmina shawls. She is targeting customers via social media applications; she has chosen Instagram as a platform and had also chosen REELs to advertise her products. She is looking for a forecasting model to understand the impact of no of likes of the REELs demonstrating product and its sales (in number of units).

Reel Number Number of units sold Number of likes
Reel 1 24 1503
Reel 2 24 1564
Reel 3 24 1649
Reel 4 24 1882
Reel 5 26 1924
Reel 6 28 1937
Reel 7 28 1944
Reel 8 29 2086
Reel 9 30 2150
Reel 10 31 2215
Reel 11 32 2366
Reel 12 32 2472
Reel 13 35 2622
Reel 14 35 2792
Reel 15 36 2871
Reel 16 36 2973
Reel 17 38 3000
Reel 18 38 3024
Reel 19 39 3319
Reel 20 40 3336
Reel 21 41 3337
Reel 22 41 3413
Reel 23 41 3479
Reel 24 42 3577
Reel 25 46 3617
Reel 26 46 3922
Reel 27 46 4332
Reel 28 48 4562
Reel 29 48 4577
Reel 30 48 4763
Reel 31 49 4964

 

  • Write the regression model.
  • Discuss the R-square, Multiple R
  • Discuss the ANOVA
  • Discuss the Significance of Independent variable and B1 value.

 

Q3.a) Draw an appropriate chart for the following. Also write your clarification for choosing that graph. For each variable identify a time-series component present if you consider the long- term pattern.

Table: Production of Commercial crops. (Source: RBI)

Year Groundnut (Lakh Tonnes) Rapeseed & Mustard (Lakh Tonnes) Soyabean (Lakh Tonnes)
2000-01 64 42 53
2001-02 70 51 60
2002-03 41 39 47
2003-04 81 63 78
2004-05 68 76 69
2005-06 80 81 83
2006-07 49 74 89
2007-08 92 58 110
2008-09 72 72 99
2009-10 54 66 100
2010-11 83 82 127
2011-12 70 66 122
2012-13 47 80 147
2013-14 97 79 119
2014-15 74 63 104
2015-16 67 68 86
2016-17 75 79 132
2017-18 93 84 109
2018-19 67 93 133
2019-20 100 91 112
2020-21 102 102 126
2021-22 101 118 130

 

Note: Here you are advised to use Software like EXCEL for making Graphs, copy them and paste in your assignment file. Snapshots are not allowed.

Q3.b) Write the sampling plan for the following study. Also write, what is recommended according to you, census survey or sample Survey?

Imagine yourself doing PhD in NMIMS, for one of your research papers you do require a primary survey to understand the social media consumption of LinkedIn users. Your goal is to understand why they are using LinkedIn, for how many hours a day, and their activities they do on the same platform. You do have research questionnaire in your hand as per your proper literature study. Now, the question is about survey and data collection.

 

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